Photo by Jared White / Brownfield
On October 29, 2025, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker signed Executive Order 2025-07 at a farm in Taylorville, formally declaring an agricultural export crisis in the state. The order directs the Illinois Department of Agriculture and the Illinois Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity to coordinate efforts aimed at expanding domestic markets for agricultural commodities while maintaining mental health support programs for farm families.
The declaration addresses what state officials describe as severe disruptions to Illinois' $26.4 billion agricultural sector, driven by shifts in global trade patterns that have effectively shut American farmers out of the Chinese market.
The Soybean Market Realignment
From January through August 2025, U.S. soybean exports to China totaled just 218 million bushels, a sharp decline from 985 million bushels during the same period in 2024. For Illinois, the impact has been particularly acute. China purchased $1.4 billion in soybeans from Illinois in 2024, making it the state's largest international customer for the crop. That market has largely disappeared in 2025.
Illinois ranks first nationally in soybean production and second in corn. Jerry Costello, Director of the Illinois Department of Agriculture, noted at the executive order signing that Illinois is the top soybean exporter in the Midwest and fourth nationally.
The void left by absent Chinese purchases has been filled by South American producers. Brazil exported approximately 2.5 billion bushels of soybeans to China from January through August 2025. Brazil now accounts for 71% of Chinese soybean imports, up from 2% three decades ago.
In the first half of 2025, Brazil accounted for about 65% of China's soybean imports. Argentina has also increased its market share. Argentina's soybean exports totaled $2 billion in 2024, and the country temporarily suspended its soybean export tax in September to boost competitiveness.
Financial Strain on Producers
The Pritzker administration reports that soybean prices have fallen below break-even levels, causing Illinois farmers to experience losses of $100 to $200 per acre. The USDA projects that U.S. agricultural exports to China will total $17 billion in 2025, down 30% from 2024 and more than 50% from 2022. For 2026, exports are expected to fall further to $9 billion.
USDA forecasts indicate cash receipts from crop sales are projected to fall 2.5% from $242.7 billion in 2024 to $236.6 billion in 2025, the lowest level since 2007.
Beef Market Complications
The agricultural crisis extends beyond soybeans. In late October 2025, the Trump administration announced plans to quadruple the tariff-rate quota for beef imports from Argentina. Argentina currently accounts for just over 2% of U.S. beef imports. The administration plans to raise the quota from 20,000 metric tons annually to 80,000 metric tons.
Illinois has 10,713 beef farms with approximately 333,000 head of cattle. State officials worry that increased Argentine beef imports will depress domestic prices and undermine local producers. U.S. cattle inventory stands at approximately 94.2 million head as of July 2025, the lowest level since 1951.
State Response and Support Programs
The executive order mandates that state agencies work to identify and develop alternative domestic markets for Illinois agricultural products. It also ensures continued funding for the Farm Family Resource Initiative, which provides mental health resources and counseling services through the 833-FARM-SOS helpline.
Since 2017, the United States has lost more than 17% of its family farms—at least 100,000 operations, according to USDA data. The financial pressures from reduced export access have contributed to this decline.
Global Market Dynamics
South America's total soybean production reached 230 million tons in 2024/25, up from 193 million tons in 2020/21. Brazil's soybean production jumped from 4.5 billion bushels in the 2017/18 crop season to 6.3 billion bushels in 2024/25.
China has not booked any U.S. soybeans for the 2025/26 marketing year, a departure from historical patterns where nearly 40% of anticipated sales would typically be committed by late October.
The restructuring of global agricultural trade flows represents a fundamental shift from patterns established over previous decades. The Center for Strategic and International Studies notes that U.S. almond growers implemented a deliberate diversification strategy starting in 2018, helping to insulate that sector from trade disruptions. Such strategies may offer a model for other agricultural sectors seeking to reduce exposure to single-market dependencies.
The situation facing Illinois farmers reflects broader challenges throughout the American agricultural sector as producers navigate a rapidly changing global marketplace while confronting rising input costs and shrinking profit margins.